Weekly Recap: Dec 4 to Dec 11

North America 

• The US Treasury Department issued guidelines for the Foreign Electric Object of Concern (FEOC) ruled last Tuesday (Dec 4), to reduce reliance on China in the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. The guidelines would take effect in 2024 for completed batteries, and 2025 for critical minerals. The rules exempted trace materials for next two years, a move praised by the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. General Motors expressed confidence in maintaining consumer incentives, while Ford awaits guidance for its agreement with Chinese battery maker CATL. Critics, including Senator Marco Rubio, argued that the rules prioritised EV interests over national security. Senator Joe Manchin vowed to challenge the guidelines, particularly the allowance of trace critical minerals from China.
• The White House urgently warned Congress to pass legislation for the continued funding of Ukraine’s defence by year-end last Tuesday(Dec 5), as the available US funds of US$111 billion(S$148 billion) are nearly exhausted. Failure to allocate more funds would jeopardise Ukraine’s defence and increase the likelihood of Russian victories. The White House emphasised the immediate need for action, stating that resources for weapons and equipment will run out by the end of the year. The GOP’s opposition was criticised, with the White House arguing that denying aid to Ukraine would benefit Russia and harm democracy. President Biden’s request for supplemental appropriations includes over US$50 billion(S$67 billion) for US-based defence manufacturing, contributing to American interests by preventing a larger regional conflict.
• A report by Stanford University researchers, last Saturday (Dec 9), revealed that tech companies, despite pledging to support ethical AI development, often prioritised performance metrics over safety, leading to a failure in implementing ethical safeguards. The study, titled “Walking the Walk of AI Ethics in Technology Companies,” drew on the experiences of 25 AI ethics practitioners who reported a lack of institutional support and siloing within organisations like Orbital Insight Inc., Nuro etc. Employees expressed challenges in addressing ethical issues early in the development process, with metrics like engagement taking precedence over ethical considerations. The report highlighted the need for companies to genuinely empower and prioritise resources to teams working on responsible AI.
• The U.S. actively engaged with representatives of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Tuesday (Dec 5), as the Biden administration contemplated reinstating energy sanctions. Talks revolved around conditions set for this October sanctions relaxations:, focusing on opposition candidate bans, the release of political prisoners, and Americans that were wrongfully detained. While Maduro’s government had addressed one of the conditions, the U.S. stressed the need for a serious opposition candidate in upcoming elections. State Department official Brian A. Nichols emphasised the importance of releasing wrongfully detained Americans, including Savoi Wright. The sanctions relaxation brought Venezuelan oil back into the formal sector, benefiting U.S. consumers. The specific measures to be reversed first remains unspecified.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced economic sanctions last Saturday (Dec 8), against individuals and companies linked to the Beltran Leyva drug cartel during her visit to Mexico. The sanctions target key figures involved in drug trafficking, including fentanyl, and aim to strengthen bilateral efforts in combating the global opioid crisis. Mexico was likely to view this as a collaborative move to disrupt the operations of the notorious cartel, address the root causes of drug trade, and enhance cooperation in tackling transnational organised crime. The emphasis on disrupting financial networks associated with drug trafficking organisations aligned with the recognition that a multifaceted approach is needed.
• Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, stated last Saturday (Dec 9), that Guatemala’s incoming government reassured Taiwan of maintaining formal ties amid China’s efforts to reduce Taipei’s allies. Currently, only 13 countries recognize Taiwan officially. Wu mentioned discussions between Taiwan’s ambassador and the incoming administration of President-elect Bernardo Arevalo. Arevalo, who campaigned for closer trade relations with China, still affirmed ties with Taiwan. Some nations switching from Taiwan to China were reportedly disappointed with unfulfilled promises. The United States remains concerned about China’s influence in Central America, traditionally its sphere of influence. Despite a landslide election victory, Arevalo’s transition faces challenges, including accusations of a politicised justice system.
• Cuba released a list accusing 61 individuals and 20 entities last Thursday (Dec 7), including dissidents and a mayoral candidate in Florida’s Miami-Dade County, of engaging in “acts of terrorism.” This came in response to a recent U.S. government report claiming Cuba provides a “safe harbour to terrorists,” a charge Havana rejects. The list included allegations of hotel bombings, plots to incite unrest, and attempts to assassinate Fidel Castro, some dating back 30 years. Among those named was Alex Otaola, a Miami-based social media influencer and mayoral candidate, accused of “promoting armed aggression against Cuba.” Otaola denied the claims, expressing that being on the list was an honour. The U.S.-Cuba relationship remained tense, with President Biden maintaining some of his predecessor’s sanctions on Cuba.

South America 

• Argentina’s future Foreign Minister, Diana Mondino, confirmed last Monday (Dec 4), that the country will not join the BRICS alliance on Jan 1, 2023, due to an unaffordable capital contribution. Despite a letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping to President-elect Javier Milei, the Libertarian administration saw no benefit in the partnership. Milei, previously critical of China, expressed gratitude for Xi’s wishes but emphasised alignment with the US, Israel, and the West, and raised concerns about potential strains on Argentina’s ties with major powers like China and Brazil.
• Venezuelans approved a government-called referendum last Monday (Dec 4), to claim sovereignty over a disputed oil- and mineral-rich area of Guyana. The referendum, which asked voters about establishing a state in the contested territory known as Essequibo, raised tensions between the two nations. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro claimed the vote was a success, with over 10.5 million votes counted, though reports suggested low voter turnout. The International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela not to take actions altering Guyana’s control over Essequibo, and neighbouring Brazil has increased its military presence in response. The disputed area is rich in minerals and borders Brazil, accounting for two-thirds of Guyana. The referendum increased the threat of annexation and undermined Guyanian control over Essequibo according to Guyana.
• Argentine President Alberto Fernández questioned the accuracy of the national poverty rate last Tuesday (Dec 5), dismissing the reported 40 per cent figure as “badly measured.” He attributed his coalition’s election loss to high inflation and a dollar shortage due to a foreign currency crisis. Critics, including Juan Grabois, highlighted worsening social indicators as reasons instead. Despite scepticism about poverty statistics, Fernández expressed commitment to democracy and his plan to attend the inauguration of his successor, Javier Milei.
• Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal declared the presidential election results “unalterable” last Saturday (Dec 8), amid public prosecutors’ efforts to question and potentially annul President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s victory. This prompted domestic and international concerns, with the Organization of American States condemnation of an  “attempted coup d’etat.” The prosecutors accused Arevalo of improprieties in gathering signatures and mishandling political funds, seeking to strip him of political immunity. Despite the prosecutors suggestion of the possibility of overturning the election, the head of the Supreme Election Tribunal refuted this, asserted the results’ validity and confirmed Arevalo’s inauguration on Jan 4, 2023. Indigenous-led protests erupted across the country in support of upholding the election results.

Europe:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh last Wednesday (Dec 6), amid what has been termed a ‘Middle East Tour’ to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. France 24’s Russia correspondent, Daniel Hawkins notes that this is to show Putin has the upper hand in the Ukraine war and to seek support among the oil-rich Gulf states, where he has many close allies. Putin also held talks with Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi on trade and what is expected to be a large weapons deal, including fighter jets. This would be the first time Iran had purchased fighter jets since the 1990s, which could be a big shift in the military power balance in the Middle East.
• The European Parliament agreed on a ‘historic’ deal on the world’s first comprehensive laws to regulate artificial intelligence (AI), social media and search engines, last Saturday (Dec 9). Officials provided few details on the specifics of the law, which would only come into effect in 2025 at the earliest. The EP did secure a ban on use of real-time surveillance and biometric technologies – including emotional recognition – unless in the event of an unexpected threat of terrorist attacks, the need to search for victims or in the prosecution of serious crimes by the police. A guarantee to ensure ‘independent authorities’ have to give permission to ‘predictive policing’ to guard against abuse by police and the presumption of innocence in crime was included as well. 
• The European Union agreed on a plan to enable member states to halt all gas imports from Russia in a move to end Europe’s reliance on Russian supplies, last Friday (Dec 8). Member states would be able to crack down on energy companies from Russia and Belarus that have been importing Russian gas into Europe by buying import capacity at key EU import terminals and pipelines. This agreement aimed to protect the security interests of the EU’s member states following the Ukraine war’s development. Currently, the EU still relies on Russia for about 10 per cent of its gas. 
• Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to an exchange of prisoners of war in what appears to be a key step towards a peace accord, last Thursday (Dec 7). Following separate mediations by the European Union, the United States and Russia, Baku would free 32 imprisoned Armenians while Yerevan would release two Azerbaijan servicemen. The neighbouring countries have been embroiled in decades-long conflict revolving around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which had freed itself from Baku’s control in a bloody ethnic conflict in 1991 and survived with financial, military and diplomatic support from Yerevan. Azerbaijan then reclaimed the territory on Sep 19, 2023, marking the end of the conflict.
• French far-right party Rassemblement National’s Marine Le Pen will stand trial alongside 27 others over the alleged misuse of EU funds, said the Paris prosecutor’s office, last Friday (Dec 8). The investigation was opened in 2016, aimed at determining whether the then National Front had used funds for parliamentary assistants for the party’s staff instead. Le Pen’s party has contested the accusations made and added that no offence has been committed. As the head of RN until 2021, Le Pen ran against Emmanuel Macron in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections.
• Denmark parliament adopted a bill prohibiting the burning of the Quran, last Thursday (Dec 7), with lawbreakers facing up to 2 years in jail. The law criminalises the ‘inappropriate treatment of writings with significant importance for a recognised religious community’. Quran burnings in Denmark and Sweden triggered outrage in the Muslim world earlier this year, resulting in Iraqis trying to march to the Danish Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone after a Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr urged for actions to be taken. Critics of the bill say that it would undermine liberal freedoms in Denmark, arguing that Muslim-majority countries would not change its legislation because Denmark felt offended by it. The bill was passed with 94 votes in favour out of the 179-member Danish parliament. 

Asia Pacific:

• Thailand and Myanmar have decided to form a humanitarian aid task force as border unrest intensifies, said Thailand’s foreign ministry, last Friday (Dec 8). A series of coordinated attacks by an alliance of ethnic minority armies in Myanmar against the military junta have intensified violence in Myanmar’s border regions. The 2021 coup and crackdown resulted in concerns about a refugee influx in China and Thailand, with the United Nations estimating more than 2 million forced to flee, of which there are 300,000 displaced persons since the rebel offensive in late October. The decision to create a task force was made during discussions between junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe and Thai counterpart Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara at the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation meeting in China. 
• An upgraded Singapore-China free trade agreement was signed at the 19th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC) meeting, co-chaired by Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, last Thursday (Dec 7). It will give Singaporean businesses greater market access to China’s service sectors, and enjoy more liberal and transparent rules that level the playing field for them to invest in and trade with China. This agreement was among 24 agreements and memorandums of understandings (MOUs) signed between Singapore and China, covering areas such as sustainability, education, trade, food security and healthcare. 
• China and the EU agreed on the need for a more ‘balanced’ trade relationship at their first in-person summit in four years last Thursday (Dec 7), but the steps to resolve differences have yet to be seen. One concern of EU leaders was the EU’s big trade deficit with China, caused by ‘unfair competition’ from a lack of access to the Chinese market and preferential treatment to Chinese firms, to overcapacities in Chinese production. Beijing warned the EU that it expected prudence when introducing ‘restrictive’ trade policies. Another concern, said to be the EU’s ‘most urgent priority’, was to ensure China’s involvement in ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by their influence on Russia, and help to stop Russia from getting around sanctions over the war.
• The United States, South Korea and Japan agreed on new initiatives last Saturday (Dec 9), in response to North Korea’s threats in cyberspace, including cryptocurrency abuses and space launches. The national security advisors of the three countries met in Seoul after North Korea launched its reconnaissance satellite, also known as a spy satellite, on Nov 21, 2023, and warned that it would deploy more. North Korea’s ‘illicit cyber activities’ have been called ‘a source of funds’ for the state’s nuclear missile development. Its state media has said that space development is part of its right to defend itself as any other country has, and have denied allegations of hacking or other cyberattacks. 
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced priorities last Thursday (Dec 7), to combat Sikh separatism in northern India after the United States and Canada accused Indian officials of involvement in assassination plots against Sikh separatist leaders. The diplomatic skirmishes with normally friendly Washington and Ottawa reveal the significant role Sikh separatism plays in Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government, which is in a strong position to win national elections next year. Indian security officials said they must suppress connections to crime overseas linked to the Sikh heartland of Punjab. However, Sikh nationalists said that Modi is trying to destroy their leadership and mobilise his Hindu base. New Delhi denied any connection to a murder in Vancouver but has announced an investigation into an alleged plot in New York. 
• Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko met China’s leader Xi Jinping in Beijing last Monday (Dec 4), for the second time this year to seek stronger economic ties amid biting Western sanctions. A close ally of Russian President Vladmir Putin, diplomatically isolated Lukashenko allowed Moscow’s use of its territory to launch the Ukraine war, which resulted in a crippled Belarusian economy as it is heavily reliant on trade with the already crippled Russia. Lukashenko wished to discuss the quickening of the pace of cooperation between China and Belarus, and Xi has been quoted saying that China is willing to continue strengthening strategic cooperation with Belarus, promote practical cooperation, and deepen bilateral relations. 
• Nepal police have detained 10 people over allegations of sending youths to be illegally recruited into the Russian army, said an official last Wednesday (Dec 6). Nepal had asked Moscow not to recruit its citizens last Tuesday (Dec 5), and to immediately send back any Nepali soldier commissioned there after revealing that six soldiers serving Russia’s military have been killed. Kathmandu District Police Chief Bhupendra Khatri said the unemployed youths are charged up to US$9000 (S$12 069) each and sent to Russia, mainly through the UAE, on tourist visas. Nepali soldiers, called Gurkhas, are known for their bravery and fighting skills, and have been serving the British and Indian armies following the independence of India in 1947 under an agreement between the three countries. 
• Myanmar’s central bank will no longer set exchange rates for foreign currencies, and will instead allow banks and dealers to decide the rates themselves, according to state media last Wednesday (Dec 6). After the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s struggling economy and tanking foreign reserves have resulted in authorities imposing tight controls to suppress demand for foreign currencies. The central bank had moved away from a managed floating exchange rate system toward reliance on administrative controls, including requiring firms to surrender foreign exchange and report currency trades. The relaxed policy aimed to increase exports and promote economic development.

Middle East 

• Turkish President Erdogan pledged a ‘win-win’ approach to relations with historic rival Greece during a visit to Athens last Thursday (Dec 7). This marked the first official visit since 2017, and ties have recently become closer after Greece sent aid to Turkey following the February earthquake that killed at least 50,000 people. Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis signed a declaration on ‘Friendly Relations and Good Neighbourliness’. The two leaders also signed more than a dozen deals including knees on energy, education, agriculture, sports, technology and tourism. The Turkish President said he aimed to nearly double bilateral trade volume to €9.3 billion (S$13.43 billion). 
• Saudi Arabia reportedly pleased with US efforts to be restrained over the increasing tensions in the Red Sea according to Reuters last Thursday (Dec 7). The Pentagon said last Monday (Dec 4), that the US Navy Destroyer, the Carney, had shot down three drones that were targeting ships connected to 14 separate nations, of which one was headed to the Carney itself. The attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against ships in the Red the past few weeks were part of collective efforts of the Iran-aligned ‘Axis of Resistance’ to pressure Washington to stop Israel. The Red Sea is integral to the oil supply routes, with many OPEC nations situated nearby. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, has cautioned the US to be restrained in responding in hopes of containing spillovers from the Hamas-Israel War.
• Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said last Friday (Dec 8), that Canada and the US insisted on Turkey ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership bid first before Canada resumes the export of drone cameras to Turkey. Erdogan insisted that Turkey’s parliament decides Sweden’s membership bid, and said a bill has already been sent for consideration this October. Erdogan also used the example of Turkey’s request for 40 Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 fighters and 79 modernisation kits for their warplanes being held up in US Congress to point out the parallel situation both Turkey and US are in. Erdogan said of the matter: “If we are two NATO allies, then do what you have to simultaneously, in solidarity, and our parliament will take the necessary decision.” 
• Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told Bloomberg News last Thursday (Dec 7), that the Palestinian Authority is working with US officials on how to run Gaza after the war. The ideal end of the conflict would see Hamas militant group become a junior partner under the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), together rebuilding a new independent state that includes the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. Shtayyeh also expressed willingness to negotiate an agreement with Hamas if they are willing to come to the table and “accept the political platform of the PLO”, and emphasised that Israel’s plan to fully wipe out Hamas is “unrealistic”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded stating, “… this … only reinforces my policy: the Palestinian Authority is not the solution.” 
• Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) announced last Thursday (Dec 7), that the situation in Gaza is a “catastrophe extending far beyond a humanitarian crisis”., calling it a “humanitarian catastrophe” and a “chaotic situation”. The war has entered a new phase with Israeli forces fighting Hamas militants in the biggest cities in the Gaza Strip. United Nations figures showed that wide areas of the narrow territory were flattened by Israeli bombardment and 85 per cent of the 2.3 million people were homeless. Israeli leaflets and messages said that Gazans would be safe on the border with Egypt, but the UN and aid organisations disputed that the thousands that have congregated at the southern tip of Gaza are safe because “there is no safe place”. 
• The US vetoed a proposed UN Security Council draft resolution for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel War last Friday (Dec 8). 13 out of 15 members voted for the draft resolution sponsored by the United Arab Emirates – Britain abstained because the draft resolution had no condemnation of Hammas.  The US and Israel opposed a ceasefire because they believed it would only benefit Hamas. Deputy US Ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood told the council that the draft resolution was a rushed, imbalanced text “that was divorced from reality, that would not move the needle forward on the ground in any concrete way … [and that would] call for an unsustainable ceasefire that will only plant the seeds for the next war.”
• Last Saturday (Dec 9), the COP28 Summit in Dubai saw countries disagreeing over a proposed agreement to phase-out fossil fuels. This could undermine the efforts to collectively reach an agreement to eventually end the use of oil and gas in 30 years of global warming talks. Saudi Arabia and Russia were allegedly asserting that the conference should only focus on reducing climate pollution and not on targeting the fossil fuels causing it. On the other side were at least 80 countries including the US, EU, and many poor, climate-vulnerable nations who called for a clear and eventual end to fossil fuel use. OPEC had sent a letter urging its members and allies to reject any mention of fossil fuels. The EU climate commissioner criticised the letter as “out of whack… not in tune with where the world stands …”.
• US bases have been attacked in Iraq and Syria last Friday (Dec 8): US Embassy compound in Baghdad was attacked with seven mortar rounds, and US forces in Iraq and Syria were targeted with rockets and drones three times at separate bases in Syria, and twice at the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad. Last Friday (Dec 8) saw the highest number of attacks recorded against US forces in a region since mid-October, when Iran-aligned militias started targeting US assets in Iraq and Syria. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani both condemned the attacks and singled out Hezbollah for the recent targeting of US personnel. Austin told Sudani that “the United States reserves the right to respond decisively against those groups”.

Africa: 

• A West African court dismissed the case brought by Niger’s military junta to lift the sanctions imposed by the regional ECOWAS bloc following the July coup, last Thursday (Dec 7). The military junta told the ECOWAS Court that the sanctions led to a shortage of medicines and food, causing “hardships”. The court dismissed the case on the grounds that the junta was not qualified to launch a case on Niger’s behalf: “the military junta is not a recognised government and is not a member of the ECOWAS state and therefore lacks the locus to institute this action. The case is hereby dismissed.” The junta government announced plans to cut spending for 2023 by 40 per cent to work around the sanctions that are further worsening one of the world’s poorest countries. 
• The World Health Organisation announced its fears over the widespread use of a severe form of mpox in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) this year, last Friday (Dec 8). Mpox has already killed 600 people, mostly children, and reportedly has over 13,000 cases in 2023 alone. WHO reported that the numbers are more than twice as many as during the last peak in 2020. Mpox is a viral infection that is transmissible through close contact and can come from infected animals, and will cause flu-like symptoms and push-filled lesions. The WHO is collaborating with DRC’s authorities on the response and a risk assessment. WHO’s mpox lead, Rosamund Lewis told Reuters that “the virus variant is known to be more virulent. If it adapts better to human to human transmission, that presents a risk.” 
• Egypt’s elections that began last Sunday (Dec 10), was expected to see military leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi win six more years in power. Sisi led the coup of democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Mursi in 2013. Supporters of the Brotherhood, Egypt’s oldest and most organised Islamist movement, were killed and thousands arrested, and senior leaders were sentenced to death in ‘unfair trials’. The election was long awaited following the decade-long crackdown on dissent, which the authorities claimed that they were “extremists and saboteurs working to undermine the state”. Sisi said that measures were taken to expand political participation and protect rights, including the launch of a five-year human rights strategy and a national defence, and modernisation of prisons; to which critics dismissed.
• After talks with key holders of the African country’s US$1 billion (S$1.34 billion) international bond ended without agreement last Friday (Dec 8), Ethiopia was pushed closer to the precipice of a debt default. “Unfortunately, in the short time available between commencement of discussions and the upcoming interest payment date, an agreement … could not be reached,” said the finance ministry. The cost of COVID-19 and the civil war in its northern Tigray region have devastated one of Africa’s most promising economies. Ethiopia’s finance ministry said they had told bondholders that it would not be in a position to pay a US$33 million (S$44.3 million) bond interest payment due on Dec 11, 2023 over “acute external liquidity pressures”, which would trigger a default. 
• Former president of Sierra Leone, Ernest Bai Koroma has been summoned by the local police for questioning last Thursday (Dec 7), over the failed coup attempt on Nov 26, 2023. Koroma said he would honour the invitation and attempted to calm the public: “I maintain an open mind and stand ready to support the police investigations to the fullest. Let the rule of law reign supreme in our democracy.” The failed coup was mostly led by the former president’s bodyguards, who attacked a military barracks, a prision, and other locations, freeing about 2,200 inmates and killing more than 20 people. Koroma had condemned the attacks after the coup attempt. 71 people, including 45 military officers, seven serving police officers, and 13 civilians had been arrested from the ongoing investigation. 
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced last Wednesday (Dec 6), that the US formally determined that the warring parties in Sudan have committed war crimes, in an effort to increase pressure on the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a ceasefire. According to the US, the RSF and allied militias committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing in West Darfur. Residents in the capital accused the RSF of looting, rape, and imprisoning civilians. The Masalit, a non-Arab tribe, were “hunted down and left for dead in the streets, their homes set on fire, and told that there is no place in Sudan for them” according to Blinken. The army carried out intense air campaigns and artillery strikes on residential neighbourhoods, which experts believe could potentially be a violation of international law.