As we near the end of 2024, the world of international relations continues to evolve at a rapid pace, shaped by a series of pivotal events and ongoing crises. From diplomatic breakthroughs to escalating tensions, this year has already witnessed significant shifts in global power dynamics. For example, the renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and China on issues of technology sharing and climate change cooperation have highlighted the complexities of their relationship. While strides have been made toward collaboration, underlying tensions regarding security and influence in the Indo-Pacific remain a significant source of friction, demonstrating the intricate balance between competition and cooperation in today’s global landscape.
US-China Relations: A Delicate Balance
The relationship between the world’s two largest economies remains fraught with tension, particularly surrounding military activity and territorial disputes in the Taiwan Strait. In March, an incident raised international alarm when a Chinese frigate came within 100 meters of the USS Benfold, a U.S. destroyer, in a near-collision that underscored the risks of accidental escalation. The encounter prompted swift diplomatic communications to de-escalate the situation, with both Washington and Beijing making pointed public statements. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin criticized China’s “increasingly aggressive maneuvers” in the region, calling for responsible behavior to avoid an unintended conflict. Chinese officials, however, have defended their actions as protective measures against perceived U.S. interference in Chinese territorial waters, accusing the U.S. of destabilizing the area with its “freedom of navigation” operations. Taiwan’s government and regional allies such as Japan and Australia have voiced concern, with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning that instability in the Taiwan Strait could have grave implications for regional peace and security.
Despite these tensions, there have been rare instances of cooperation. Last month, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua announced a joint initiative to accelerate the transition to clean energy in developing countries, with a focus on funding and technical support for renewable infrastructure. This announcement followed an in-person meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, during which Kerry and Xie emphasized the critical importance of climate action, setting aside political disagreements to address shared environmental goals. World leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, praised the collaboration, noting that it reflected the “indivisible” nature of global climate challenges that require cooperation across borders.
This cooperation highlights the complex, multi-dimensional nature of U.S.-China relations, in which economic rivalry, security concerns, and ideological differences coexist with occasional collaboration on global issues. The initiative on clean energy may serve as a model for limited cooperation on non-security matters, but it also underscores the delicate balancing act that characterizes U.S.-China engagement: each side navigating opportunities for collaboration while remaining wary of actions that could shift the balance of power in sensitive regions such as the Indo-Pacific.
European Unity Tested
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to profoundly influence European politics, with significant impacts on the EU’s cohesion and decision-making processes. In February, on the conflict’s second anniversary, European leaders gathered in Kyiv to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine, pledging additional military and economic aid. Yet, this unified front is showing signs of strain. Hungary’s recent veto of a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine has drawn attention to fractures within the EU. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has cited concerns over the economic burden on EU taxpayers, as well as his country’s strong ties with Moscow, as reasons for blocking the package. This move has sparked frustration among EU leaders and raised doubts about the EU’s ability to sustain a consistent policy toward the Ukraine crisis, especially as public support in some member states begins to waver under inflation and energy costs.
In response to these challenges, France and Germany are driving efforts to reform the EU’s decision-making processes, advocating for mechanisms that would enable swifter responses to pressing issues. French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed introducing qualified majority voting (QMV) on foreign policy matters, a significant shift from the current requirement for unanimity. Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz argue that QMV could make the EU more agile in its foreign policy decisions, particularly in situations like the Ukraine crisis, where rapid responses are essential.
This reform, however, has sparked concerns, particularly among smaller EU states, who worry that QMV would diminish their influence in critical policy decisions. For the EU as a whole, adopting QMV in foreign policy could streamline decision-making and strengthen the bloc’s external position, making it less vulnerable to internal vetoes like Hungary’s. Yet, it would also mean that certain nations could be outvoted on significant issues, potentially leading to divisions within the EU. The ongoing debate highlights the EU’s struggle to balance its need for effective, united action with its foundational commitment to consensus among member states.
Middle East: A New Chapter?
The Middle East has witnessed notable diplomatic shifts this year. The Abraham Accords, a series of agreements initially signed in 2020 to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab nations, have continued to expand. In January, Oman joined the Accords, becoming the latest Arab country to normalize ties with Israel. This move has further isolated Iran diplomatically, heightening tensions in the Persian Gulf as Tehran perceives the expanding ties as a strategic threat.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing Vision 2030 reforms—a comprehensive plan launched in 2016 to diversify the economy away from oil dependency and promote social modernization—are reshaping the kingdom’s regional influence. In a historic move, Princess Reema bint Bandar was appointed as foreign minister earlier this year, making her the first woman to hold this role. This appointment could signal a new approach in Saudi foreign policy, reflecting the kingdom’s shifting social dynamics and its ambitions to present a more progressive image on the world stage.
Africa’s Rising Influence
African nations are increasingly asserting themselves on the global stage, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) making notable strides in its third year of implementation. The AfCFTA aims to create a single market for goods and services across the continent, and its success is becoming evident. Intra-African trade has increased by 22% since the agreement’s inception, as reported by the UN Economic Commission for Africa, illustrating the growing economic integration and collective bargaining power of African nations.
Kenya’s successful bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in 2023 marks a significant milestone in the country’s diplomatic ascent. Kenya’s desire for the seat stems from its ambitions to amplify its influence on global decision-making, particularly in areas that directly affect Africa. Holding a seat on the Security Council provides Kenya with a platform to push for greater representation of developing nations and advocate for reforms in international institutions. This diplomatic achievement also enhances Kenya’s stature as a leader in regional and global affairs.
Kenyan President William Ruto has used this opportunity to advocate for reform in global financial institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF, arguing that these institutions should better serve the needs of developing nations. Kenya’s presence on the Security Council bolsters its role as a vocal advocate for the Global South, challenging the established economic and political order that has often sidelined African interests. Kenya’s diplomatic maneuvering at the Security Council is helping to elevate the profile of Africa in global governance, signaling a shift toward a more inclusive international system.
Climate Crisis: Urgency Amidst Action
The devastating floods in Bangladesh in April, which displaced over 2 million people, highlight the increasing vulnerability of low-lying nations to climate change. These events have reignited discussions about climate justice, emphasizing the need for wealthier nations to provide financial support for adaptation efforts in developing countries that contribute little to global emissions but suffer the most from its impacts. As climate change accelerates, there are growing calls for more ambitious global action to help vulnerable nations build resilience and adapt to extreme weather.
Despite the ongoing crisis, there has been notable progress in renewable energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that renewable energy now accounts for 40% of global electricity generation, three years ahead of schedule. China and India have been pivotal in this growth, with China leading in solar and wind energy, and India making significant strides in expanding solar power. This progress is crucial in the fight against climate change, helping reduce reliance on fossil fuels and lower emissions
However, the transition to clean energy must accelerate. Although renewable energy is growing, global emissions are still rising, and many developing countries face challenges in adopting clean energy due to financial and technological barriers. To meet the IPCC’s targets of reducing emissions by 45% by 2030, the world must ensure that all nations, especially those in the Global South, have access to the resources needed for a sustainable energy future. The path to a greener world requires urgent, inclusive action that leaves no one behind.
Technological Frontiers and Challenges
The race for AI supremacy is increasingly shaping international relations, as nations recognize the strategic importance of AI in global power dynamics. The US-led “AI Alliance for Democracy,” formed in late 2023 with partners such as the UK, Japan, and South Korea, is aimed at promoting ethical AI development and setting global standards. This initiative is a direct countermeasure to China’s growing dominance in AI, particularly in areas like surveillance technology, where Beijing is seen as leveraging AI to extend its geopolitical influence. The alliance underscores a growing divide in how AI is perceived and regulated across the world, and it is clear that the battle for AI supremacy will be a defining feature of global competition in the coming years.
Meanwhile, cybersecurity remains a pressing concern for global stability. The series of ransomware attacks on European healthcare systems in February, reportedly originating from Russia, highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the digital age. These attacks have sparked calls for a new international treaty on cybercrime to establish clear norms and consequences for cyber threats. With cyber warfare becoming an increasingly common tool in global power struggles, the need for a cohesive, multilateral approach to cybersecurity is more urgent than ever.
Looking ahead to 2024, the international landscape is increasingly complex, marked by intense competition between major powers, yet also moments of collaboration on global issues. The balancing act nations must perform between safeguarding their own interests and contributing to collective global solutions will determine not only the future of international relations but also the trajectory of global stability and prosperity. As geopolitical tensions rise and new challenges such as cyber threats and AI governance emerge, it is clear that the coming years will require diplomatic agility and a keen focus on long-term strategies to ensure a stable and equitable global order. How nations navigate these challenges will ultimately shape the future of international relations, with consequences that will echo far beyond 2024.
